Conversion participation KANSANSHI en actions FQM ???

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indibleu

Messages: 259

Inscription: Sam 5 Sep 2009 14:05

Message Mar 26 Fév 2013 03:18

Conversion participation KANSANSHI en actions FQM ???

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-2 ... older.html

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) may see Zambia’s state-owned mining company become its second-biggest shareholder if it converts a stake in the continent’s largest copper operation into equity.
ZCCM Investment Holdings Plc (MLZAM) will “hopefully” decide this year, said Mukela Muyunda, chief executive officer of the company that’s 88 percent owned by the government of Africa’s largest copper producer.
If ZCCM decides to exchange its stake in the Kansanshi mine, located near the Democratic Republic of Congo border, for First Quantum shares, it could end up owning about 10 percent of the company, said George Topping, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus Canada Inc. in Toronto. BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest money manager, is First Quantum’s largest owner, with about 12 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We would be happy if ZCCM becomes a shareholder in First Quantum as part of a step in transforming ZCCM into a sovereign fund,” John Gladston, a Zambia-based spokesman for First Quantum, said in an e-mail yesterday. “It is something First Quantum would be willing to accommodate.”
Zambia sold most of its mining industry to private investors between 1996 and 2001, maintaining stakes from 10 percent to 21 percent in companies, which it holds through ZCCM. That reversed a nationalization that took place in the 1970s.
ZCCM first said it was considering swapping its Kansanshi stake for shares in First Quantum in its strategic plan made public in December. The company sold its 2.28 percent stake in Equinox Minerals Ltd. to Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) for more than $160 million in 2011, having paid $30 million for the shares five years earlier.
Valuation Method
Topping bases his calculation of the shareholding ZCCM may get in First Quantum on a $5.4 billion valuation of the Kansanshi mine, he said. Kansanshi is worth about $6 billion, Patrick Jones, a London-based analyst with Nomura International Plc said in a Jan. 16 research report. First Quantum has a market value of C$9 billion ($8.8 billion).
ZCCM had previously planned to decide on converting its Kansanshi stake by the end of last year, Muyunda said by mobile phone Feb. 21. First Quantum shares gained 1 percent to C$19.10 at 10:33 a.m. in Toronto yesterday. ZCCM was unchanged at 2.63 euros on the NYSE Euronext exchange in Paris.
“When all the necessary consultations are concluded,” with Zambia’s finance ministry, ZCCM will make a decision, Muyunda said.
First Quantum’s hostile C$5.1 billion bid for Inmet Mining Corp. (IMN), which is developing the $6.2 billion Cobre Panama copper project, is due to expire Feb. 27. Shareholders of the target company can choose to receive cash, shares or both.
“I don’t see a major impact on the Inmet bid” from ZCCM’s decision to convert its Kansanshi stake, Topping said.
Companies including Barrick Gold Corp., Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) and Glencore International Plc (GLEN) also operate mines in the country. Zambia doubled royalty rates for metals used in industry including copper to 6 percent effective in April, abandoning an earlier move to introduce a windfall tax.
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LesCrozes

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Messages: 5909

Inscription: Jeu 14 Mai 2009 16:23

Message Mar 26 Fév 2013 07:08

Re: Conversion participation KANSANSHI en actions FQM ???

10% de la société FQM ayant une capitalisation boursière de 8,8 milliards de dollars, représente 880 millions de dollars pour 89 millions d'actions ZCCM-IH soit 10$, ou encore 7.6€ par actions ZCCM-IH pour la seule participation Kansanshi/First Quantum.

Une estimation rapide est que l'actif de Kansanshi/First Quantum représente un tiers de la valeur des actifs de ZCCM-IH ( un deuxième tiers avec KCM et Mopani, le reste des 10 autres actifs constituant le dernier tiers)

A vos calculettes, à moins que le calcul mental ne suffise...
Ce que l'on conçoit bien, s'énonce clairement, Et les mots pour le dire arrivent aisément. BOILEAU
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mbury

Messages: 2303

Inscription: Sam 19 Sep 2009 09:49

Localisation: Nord de l'Alsace, dans le Parc Régional des Vosges du nord

Message Mar 26 Fév 2013 11:04

Re: Conversion participation KANSANSHI en actions FQM ???

Boujour et merci Les Crozes,
Aujourd'hui, pour ma part, je pense que les 20 % de Kansanshi valent entre 13 et 16 % de FQM, sans parler des mino interests. D'ici qqs années, les projets en cours de FQM auront pris beaucoup de valeur, mais l'échange devrait avoir lieu prochainement et il n'y a donc pas de raison de s'appuyer sur une valeur future de FQM. Reste que cette nouvelle va redonner de la hauteur à notre pépite.
Bonne journée à tous MB
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mbury

Messages: 2303

Inscription: Sam 19 Sep 2009 09:49

Localisation: Nord de l'Alsace, dans le Parc Régional des Vosges du nord

Message Jeu 28 Fév 2013 23:28

Re: Conversion participation KANSANSHI en actions FQM ???

"Topping bases his calculation of the shareholding ZCCM may get in First Quantum on a $5.4 billion valuation of the Kansanshi mine, he said. Kansanshi is worth about $6 billion, Patrick Jones, a London-based analyst with Nomura International Plc said in a Jan. 16 research report. First Quantum has a market value of C$9 billion ($8.8 billion)"

Bonsoir,
Qd je lis l'extrait ci-dessus, Patrick Jones évalue Kansanshi à 5,4 milliards de $ (US), je suppose, ce qui fait 1,08 milliard pour ZCCM-IH, soit 12 $ par titre ZCCM IH. Pour cet analyste, aujourd'hui Kansanshi représente plus de la moitié de FQM. Même si les projets (Sentinel, etc..) avancent bien, il faut convenir aussi que Kansanshi augmente très rapidement SA production.
Un échange contre 10 % de FQM reste, pour moi, une affaire... exclusivement pour FQM! Pour une pilule anti-OPA et 20 % de Kansanshi, FQM devra mettre plus dans la balance...
Bonne soirée MB

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