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Can Vedanta be the next BHP Billiton? Cairn deal will make
Cairn deal will make it only 2nd diversified miner with oil, gas assets.
Vidya Ram
London, Aug. 13
Can Vedanta Resources pull off a BHP Billiton? This was the question being asked on Friday amid rumours that Mr Anil Agarwal's London-listed mining titan was considering a bid for a majority stake in Cairn India.
Edinburgh-based Cairn Energy, which holds a 62 per cent stake in Cairn India and its Mangala project in Rajasthan, and Vedanta confirmed they were in talks about the Indian assets, though have not given details of the deal.
If the deal happens, it would mark a significant transformation for Vedanta, which produces aluminium, copper, zinc lead, and iron ore, and would make it only the second diversified miner, after BHP Billiton, to have oil and gas assets. “One reason why it doesn't happen is that they are completely different operationally. You can't just translate a mining skills-set, and acquiring oil companies comes at a hefty price,” said Mr Richard Knights, mining and energy analyst at Liberum Capital in London. That concern is one reason why the market reaction has been so negative; Vedanta shares were down nearly 5 per cent on Friday afternoon , a day after shares fell nearly 3 per cent when talk of the deal first began to circulate.
That's not to say the energy-mining model doesn't work. BHP has a hugely successful energy portfolio, which is not only its highest margin divisions (the EBIT margin for petroleum assets is 56 per cent compared to 49 per cent for the base metals and 12 per cent for aluminium), but also produces 30 per cent of its profits, according to the latest figures.
However, there are substantial differences between what BHP achieved and what Mr Agarwal's group is hoping to. BHP made its first foray into energy back in 1960, when the company hired an American geologist to identify potential oil fields in Australia, which ultimately led them to a joint venture with Exxon in the Bass Strait in 1965. BHP has gradually built up its energy assets, through organic growth and also has assets in the North West Shelf and the Gulf of Mexico.
By contrast, the Vedanta move would put it in charge of one of India's most significant oil fields, with an estimated capacity, when fully up and running, of up to 240,000 barrels a day. Analysts are also in little doubt that it's a deal that could only take place at a hefty premium. Vedanta is expected to announce a purchase price of $8-8.5 billion on Monday, reported the Reuters news agency on Friday, citing an unnamed source close to the deal. That would put the price tag at around a 15 per cent premium to Cairn India's current share price. Depending on one's view of where oil prices are heading and the risks involved in the Mangala project (which are not insubstantial, especially given that it is a highly water intensive project) that could either be seen as a bargain or a highly risky gamble.
“There is no doubt it could be the right move, though it would require a significant amount of debt financing on Vedanta's part,” says Mr Knights. “They have also got a very aggressive organic growth plan so their capital expenditure bill for the next few years is fairly sizable.”